Visca Barça: A Clásico Preview

For almost five months the blaugrana have watched quietly as the Spanish media have fawned over José Mourinho, his rebuilt side and the manner in which they have dispatched all that has been put in front of them. 19 games in all competitions and not one loss. 49 goals. More than 2 and a half goals per game, significantly better than last year where they had already lost once in the league, once in the Copa del Rey and once in the Champions League before meeting FC Barcelona last year. They on the other hand have struggled to incorporate David Villa, lost significant portions of their first team squad to injury and have been dealt some embarrassing blows, losing 0-2 at home to recently promoted Hércules and struggling with draws in their Champions League group, first against Rubin Kazan and the Copenhagen. From all reports, this should be one of the most even games in clásico history. It won´t.

José Mourinho is predicting another joyous return to the Camp Nou. It won´t be. Cristiano Ronaldo is predicting a Real Madrid win. They won´t. This Barcelona squad have endured numerous tests over the last three years since Pep Guardiola has been in charge, numerous big matches, and other than one faulty game at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium last Spring against a seasoned Inter Milan squad that were drilled for two years under Mourinho´s system, the blaugrana had taken all comers. This Real Madrid squad is not in the same class as that Inter squad.

Julio Cesar at his best is arguably on par with Iker Casillas. Maicon, Lucio, Samuel and Zanetti were epic. Are Ramos, Pepe, Carvalho and Marcelo in the same league? Nope. Cambiasso, Motta and Sneijder versus Ozil, Khedira, and Alonso? Alonso is better than Motta, but I´d still rather have Sneijder over Ozil, and Cambiasso over Khedira. Up front? For the sort of counter-attacking game that Mourinho prefers, there is no one better suited than Diego Milito, not even Higuain, Pandev is a better player than DiMaria, and for work-rate, I´d rather have a dozen Etóo´s over one Cristiano Ronaldo.

What is also evident is that this Real Madrid squad have yet to be tested away from the familiar confines of the Santiago Bernabeu where, even before Mourinho, they lost only once in the league all last season: to Barcelona 0-2 in April. They have scored 33 goals in all competitions at home but have scored a mere 17 goals away. In the league the discrepancy is even gretaer having scored 23 goals at the Bernabeu and a mere 10 away from home. The numbers don´t lie.

Some are talking tactics as the key, an examination of distinct styles, the greatest proponent of an attacking 4-3-3 versus 4-2-3-1´s biggest. There won´t be any surprises. Neither coach wants to lose face with a late minute gamble that could blow up in their face. Neither coach believes that they have the upper hand tactically. This will be a measure of Barcelona´s will to score against Real Madrid´s conservative approach, parking the bus, and increasing the pressure on the supporters and on the squad to break their lines.

My prediction? In a perfect world these two teams would fight it out to 0-0 draws and open the door for a decent third team in Spain, but since that´s a pipe dream I´ll settle for the best of two horrible scenarios. I didn´t reveal it before the podcast because I wanted people to listen, but I think the game will be close for the better part of 30-40 minutes, Barcelona will score either just before the half or just after the half, Real Madrid will come back and score quickly, but after a time they´ll tire and Barcelona will score two late. Messi will score, Villa will add to it and one of the defenders will as well, I´d say Pique. Di Maria will score and Cristiano will go another game without scoring against FC Barcelona.

Final score: 3-1 to the blaugrana. Either way we´ll have to deal with either group of insufferable supporters crowing for another 6 months.