Visca Barca 1.5: A Clásico Lock

The entirety of a league schedule comes to this. One game in Barcelona at the end of November and a return leg in Madrid in the Spring. Two games to decide a championship that was contested in the same manner last year. A league defined by two matches while the rest gather up the meager helpings of Champions League and Europa League glory but despite the inevitability these days of either a white or blaugrana league victory in my ancestral homeland, the clásico never leaves me cold. The build-up is like no other rivalry match in sports. You can talk about Arsenal-Spurs or Celtic-Rangers, Lazio-Roma or Juve-Inter, while all intense matchups, they don´t hold a candle. None of them divide a country like Real Madrid v Barcelona. It may have once been a question of Real Madrid dominance contested sparingly by Barcelona, but in the last 10 matches it isn't even close. 5 Barcelona wins with 3 draws and 2 losses for the Catalans.

It's one of the reasons why Jose Mourinho was brought in. Win La Decima, their tenth Champions League trophy of course, but more importantly, beat Barcelona. Eliminate their growing dominance over the rivalry but also strip them of their firm hold on the national footballing philosophy. Without Barca there would be no World Cup victory. Barcelona was now the identifiable center of Spain's footballing culture. Return that sense of Spanish identity home to the capital.

You can say he's already done it, just read Marca or As any day of the week now and you'd be hard-pressed to find Barcelona coverage equalling of the Mourinho miracle and yet, three points separated them at the end of year last year and one point separates them now. Don't misunderstand, Real Madrid are significantly better than they have been since the days of Del Bosque at the helm, they have the highest goal ration in Champions League play for instance (percentage points ahead of Chelsea FC), but this is still a work in progress, a four year projuect if you believe the Special One.

They flatter with which to deceive I think, which is why this clásico, moved recently to Monday, November 29th despite the protestations of wanna-be madridista inebriates, will wind up more of the same: a Messianic victory for Barcelona at the Camp Nou. You want reasons? You mean I can't just fall back on my generalized antipathy to all things Mourinho? Don't worry, I can find some if pressed.

Location: Home-field advantage is key. Granted, Barcelona have been atypically less-than-stellar at the Camp Nou compared to their away form, but they´ve rectified that. They´re unbeaten in their last six games, Villa has found his place in the Barcelona attack and Messi is thriving on the one-twos he´s playing with El Guaje; it´s similar to the manner in which he played with Samuel Etoó. They look very dangerous right now and nobody is reporting on it. Thank you skewed Spanish media.

Lineups: Both teams have used the same quantity of players in their 10 games: 20. While Barcelona have 5 players to have featured in all competitions rotating in 15 players from their very short squad, Real Madrid have had 9 players to have featured in every match, vetting in 11. Pep has been able to, by need or by design, rest his very worn out, World Cup winning players like Xavi, Puyol and Busquets and give slots to canteranos (youth-teamers) like Thiago Alcantara, and Nolito. You can say that building a squad, developing a style of play, and creating a cohesive unit were imperative early for Mourinho, explaining his lack of substitutions, and so that is, but for Pep it came down to saving his squad. Xavi has a chronic achilles problem that won´t allow him to play three games in a week, Puyol is contemplating international retirement and Iniesta is coming back from one of his poorer showings last year despite his World Cup heroics. Not to mention, they have Lionel Messi. You can say what you want about Cristiano Ronaldo, that he has 11 goals to Messi´s 8, but three of those were penalties and he´s played two more games than Messi. In this biggest of all big games, the more composed superstar will win and that is obviously Messi.

Tactics: Despite significant gains in midfield. They have added width in Di Maria and Pedro León. They also have a world-class play-maker now and found a partner for Alonso who is disciplined and organized, but the Germans Ozil and Khedira are not saviors. There are still flaws in that Real Madrid setup. The double-pivot in Mourinho´s preferred 4-2-3-1 can cover weaknesses that may have appeared last year, but the weaknesses remain if a club is brave enough to exploit them. Marcelo didn´t just suddenly become a great player. He´ll need help from Alonso and either Carvalho and Pepe to diminish Messi´s control of the game. If they were truly Messi-dependent, Barcelona would be screwed, but they have effectiveness on both wings and this is starting to look more and more like the brand of lightning quick attack that won 6 trophies two years ago. Despite an embarrassing flirtation with a 4-2-1-3 formation against Hércules at the Camp Nou early on, the club have also reverted to the usual Cruyff inspired 4-3-3 and they have started to click.

Messi-llanea: I could go on, but the usual mind-games aren´t working for Mou. Pep has responded pretty much by not responding. Zen principles or not, Guardiola has managed to keep them focused and it shows. Everyone talks about the genius of Mourinho knocking Barcelona out of the Champions League last year at the Camp Nou but people forget that Barcelona won that night 1-0. That´s the scoreline I´m predicting for the 2010 Clásico at the Camp Nou.