The Trapdoor Is Opening

After my last article on the promotion race in La Liga Adelante, I decided to have a closer look at the Primera Division relegation battle.

With just four rounds of fixtures left to play, the relegation picture is still somewhat unclear. While Almeria are certainly going to be playing in the Segunda next season, the other two positions are looking like they might not be decided until probably the final round of fixtures.

Almeria's 0-1 reverse at home to Sevilla, coupled with wins for Racing, Malaga, Real Sociedad, Real Zaragoza and Osasuna has left them 12 points adrift of Osasuna and Deportivo with just four games to go. They do have superior head-to-head records against both clubs.

The biggest shocks of the weekend were Zaragoza's 3-2 win at the Bernabeu, and Real Sociedad's come-from-behind 2-1 win at Anoeta against Champions Barcelona, both of which occurred on Saturday night. As an aside, it is the first time both Real and Barca have lost in the same round of games since the weekend of 16/17 May 2009.

Malaga's victory came at home to fellow strugglers Hercules, which has now left the latter in serious trouble. They could get cut adrift next week if they don't get three points from their match against Racing Santander. The side from Alicante are five points away from safety, and are more than likely going to join Almeria in the Segunda next season. There are a few fixtures between those fighting for their Liga lives next week. In addition to Hercules v Racing, Getafe can relegate Almeria when the two teams meet in Madrid, and Zaragoza will hope to follow up their superb victory in the capital when they entertain Osasuna.

In total, there are probably seven teams in danger of joining Almeria to go down. Racing Santander are not 100% safe in 13th. They currently have 40 points. An argument could be made that as far up the league as Sporting Gijon are still in danger. Sporting currently sit in tenth with 42 points, but if results go against them in round 35, they could be pulled back down into the mire. Levante, one place and one point better off, should be safe now.

My predicition, though, is that it will be Hercules, along with one of Osasuna or Getafe that join Almeria in the bottom three after the 38th game has finished.

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