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As my pseudonym implies, I'm quite fond of examining numbers. The hidden part, the middle name as it were, is that I delight in extrapolating information from those data. But one thing I am not is a coach. I'm not going to write an article on how critical it will be for Shakhtar to neutralize Lionel Messi, because what advice could I give my hypothetical defender, a player who would probably be less agile and, well, hungry? Try to keep up with him? Double-team him and hope he doesn't produce a highlight reel? No, I'm going to take a holistic approach instead and keep my focus on the team-level. I'm going to outline performance over the last eight Champions League matches for each team, and then I'll discuss where the offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses lie. Every team has a chance of winning, and the situation in any game can take a U-turn in minutes. (Just ask Bayern Munich about Inter.) So what can a cross-examination of goalscoring tell us? More than you'd guess, and I'd like to start with offense. Below, you can see in which leg of the match each team has scored (GF = Goals scored), and below that, the percentage of goals that have come in those legs, by team.
To keep things tight, once you've taken the offense into account, take a look at a similar defensive breakdown (where GA = Goals against):
THE BIG PICTURE
Real Madrid vs. Tottenham -
Offensively, both teams excel in second-half play, so look for the most action then. In Madrid's case, los Merengues appear to come out for the second half ready to coast, but then go off to the races from minutes 61-75, the phase of a match that can crush opponents' hopes of a comeback. Most importantly, though, the final two phases of the match are the only ones in which Madrid have broken down defensively, and this pattern would feed right into Tottenham's strengths. Not only have the Hotspur bagged more goals in the second half than any other team, but they also have a knack for scoring in the final leg -- exactly when Madrid are most vulnerable in the back. Notice that Tottenham also have their best defensive numbers in the final third of the match.
For Madrid to win in style: Score early, when Tottenham are most prone to allowing goals. Take a lead into halftime, and initiate an all-out barrage of shots from minutes 61-75. Don't wait till the last minute to score, and don't sit on an early lead.
For Tottenham to win in style: Go toe-to-toe with the highest-paid team in sports for 45 minutes. Come out in the second half as though the first 15 minutes were the last of the Champions League final. Score a goal and get ready to trade punches. Counter-attacking will be key.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United -
Chelsea tend to start slowly, then spring to life, then come out from the locker room ready to put the game to bed, whereas Man U are opening and closing specialists, whose strength is earning the lead and not allowing the other team to take it away. Let me emphasize, however, that both teams have given up very few goals, so expect tight play. One goal could be the difference in either match.
For Chelsea to win in style: Rob the Red Devils from establishing an early lead, and really put them on the ropes with a goal in minutes 16-30. Take a lead into half-time and stick with the game plan on the way back onto the pitch, i.e. take away the initiative when it would least be expected.
For Manchester United to win in style: Put league hopes on hold and prove that even a weakened back line can hold off the best. Wait for the right opportunity and pounce in the second half, when the Blues are wearing down. The rest is like clockwork.
Barcelona vs. Shakhtar Donetsk -
Both teams hit the back of the net more often in the second half, and in fact, neither one has grabbed a lead in the first 15 minutes. Since both sides have scored 18 goals, you should anticipate an energetic pace from the second phase of the game onward, despite the fact that Barcelona will almost certainly dominate possession and work the ball back and forth in their trademark manner.
For Barcelona to win in style: Nearly everyone is expecting a win already, but to win in style, Barça should either score immediately or, at the very least, score in minutes 16-30 and carry a one- or two-goal lead into the half. From the restart, continue to find spaces and work against the numbers by keeping a clean sheet in the last phase, tied for their lowest point defensively, and Shakhtar's best offensively.
For Shakhtar Donetsk to win in style: Play as though there's nothing to lose, because they've already defied expectations. In other words, stick with attacking football as much as possible. Above all else, avoid coughing up an early lead, which could set off a complacency trigger.
Inter Milan vs. Schalke -
Unlike the case with the other teams, this is a tale of two halves, with Inter clearly being stronger in the first and Schalke in the second. As Samuel Eto'o's 3rd-minute goal from the last match attests, Inter come out of the gates ready to go, often taking the early lead. Schalke operate like a typical German side in that open play isn't the norm, but this is not to say Die Königsblauen lack attacking options or creativity.
For Inter Milan to win in style: Don't assume this German side is the same as the last, and don't carry a sense of relief (from last-minute drama) into the match. Score early and score again, particularly right before the half. Continue to defend strongly immediately after the break, but remain composed in the final 15 minutes.
For Schalke to win in style: Score first, which could put Milan into alarm-mode too soon and cause a burnout. Hold firm on defense when typically the weakest, from minutes 16-30 and 76-90. Score in the second half from minutes 61-75, when Inter tend to score the least but play the best defensively.
Although it's true that eight matches don't tell the whole story, they provide enough information to establish noticeable patterns. Tottenham clearly rely more on offensive production than, say, Man U. Which style of play suits your fancy? Who do you think will go through to the semi-finals? For my part...
But wait, I almost forgot my name. It isn't Mr. Prognosticator, after all.
Data Head writes for Fantasy Football Stats, covering the details of both the English Premier League and La Liga Yahoo! Fantasy Football games.
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